The American website “Real Clear Defense”, which specializes in military affairs, identified the reasons that push the United States to withdraw its forces from Iraq and Syria, including that the “ISIS-Khorasan” organization is the one that has become a global terrorist threat, not ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and also because the Iraqi forces have become able to confront it alone, even sectarianism in Iraq is no longer what it was 10 years ago.
The American report, which was translated by Shafaq News Agency, stated that an agreement was reached to withdraw the majority of American soldiers from Iraq, with the exception of a small group of soldiers, who will remain to leave in stages until the year 2026.
Taylor Swift Concert
Critics of the US withdrawal say the recent surge in terrorist activity, particularly the escalation of violence in Iraq, the March attack in Moscow and the failed bombing of Taylor Swift’s concert in Vienna, are reasons to keep troops in place, while the Biden administration believes otherwise.
After the report considered that Biden was right and the critics were wrong on this issue, explaining that the benefits of staying in Iraq, or in Syria, were no longer worth the costs of doing so, the report expressed hope that the small unit left in Iraq alongside the American force in Syria would return home soon.
Regarding the benefits, the report said first that the US forces in Iraq and Syria now represent no importance in terms of controlling global terrorist threats, noting that the ISIS organization in Iraq and Syria had no connection to the terrorist plots in Vienna or Moscow.
The report pointed out that the Moscow attack was not launched by ISIS in Iraq or Syria, but by the Khorasan Organization, with its Tajik branch.
The report added that, like other local terrorist groups, the relations between the Khorasan Organization and the Iraqi-Syrian ISIS are loose, as experts do not see any connection between them in planning and executing the Moscow attack or other recent attempts to carry out attacks in Europe.
Global threat
The report found that while ISIS-K represents a rising global terrorist threat, ISIS in Iraq and Syria does not, adding that there are therefore no benefits to US security in keeping its forces in Iraq and Syria.
The American report wondered that as long as it was not possible to stop global terrorist attacks, why do American forces need to be present in Iraq and Syria?
Second, the report says, Iraq and other countries in the region can deal with ISIS on their own, and therefore do not need the presence of American forces in Iraq and Syria, recalling how since 2019, when the ISIS caliphate was destroyed, Iraqi forces, not American forces, have taken on almost the entire burden of combating ISIS remnants.
The report indicated that ISIS has turned into a group of isolated and decentralized cells that Iraq’s “technical military superiority” can prevent from regaining control over large areas of territory.
In addition, the report said that the sectarianism that helped facilitate the rise of ISIS in 2014 has also become much less than it was at that time due to the good governance measures taken by the Iraqi government.
Phased withdrawal
The report stated that unlike what happened in Afghanistan, Iraq wants to take full control of dealing with ISIS, while other countries have a strong interest in helping combat ISIS as well, and that is why Baghdad is already coordinating its operations against ISIS with Syria, Turkey, Iran and Russia.
Therefore, the report says that in light of all this, it is difficult to see any benefit in keeping American forces in Iraq, adding that the phased withdrawal will allow the necessary time to make adjustments towards more regional coordination to combat terrorism.
The report continued that if the United States needed to return, which is unlikely, or needed to carry out strikes from afar to confront global threats, it would be able to do so, as it did recently in Afghanistan and northern Somalia.
Third, the report said that in terms of stopping global terrorist attacks, US forces deployed in counterterrorism areas currently achieve far fewer benefits than other approaches that do not rely on the use of force but rather focus on multilateral intelligence cooperation.
The report explained that attacks by the Khorasan organization were thwarted in Vienna, as well as in Germany, Turkey and the United States recently, not because the United States had forces fighting the organization on the ground in South Asia, Iraq or Syria, but rather the success was achieved through an expanded global network of law enforcement and intelligence agencies working across borders to prevent such attacks from occurring.
“Astronomical” costs
The report asked why the United States does not focus its energy in America, instead of focusing on much less effective methods such as keeping troops in dangerous combat zones?
The report continued by saying that it would be a good thing if keeping forces in Iraq and Syria was cost-free, but it is not, noting that American forces were exposed during the year to more than 170 attacks by proxy groups, and three Americans were killed and hundreds of others were injured.
He added that during the past months, the proxy groups adopted an informal truce to allow for withdrawal negotiations with Iraq, noting that if the United States had withdrawn from those talks, the attacks would have begun again.
He continued by saying that regardless of the risks to which American soldiers are exposed, experts believe that attacks by proxy groups and counter-strikes could lead to the current unrest in the Middle East turning into a regional war, the costs of which would be “astronomical” for the United States.
The report concluded with the following question: “Is such an outcome worth the trouble for American national security? No, not in light of the limited benefits and great risks of keeping troops on the ground in Iraq and Syria,” adding: “It is time for American forces to leave.”
shafaq.com