Deutsche Bank adjusted its outlook for the S&P 500, expecting the benchmark index to overcome the typical election year pullback and have increased their year-end target for the S&P 500 from 5500 to 5750.
“Our base case sees a recovery from the current ongoing pullback melding into the potential typical election pullback, before rallying into year end,” the analysts said.
The recent downturn in the market has been attributed to a valuation decrease in mega cap growth and tech stocks and concerns regarding the labor market.
However, Deutsche Bank suggests that the technology sector’s devaluation may have stabilized, with investment positions now aligning with the sector’s slowing earnings growth. Moreover, labor market growth appears to be returning to steady rates seen before the pandemic.
As the focus shifts towards the upcoming U.S. election, historical trends suggest a market decline starting in early October, followed by a rally post-election, assuming a clear outcome.
Deutsche Bank’s analysts maintain a positive outlook, with earnings per share expected to reach $258 in 2024, a 13% increase, and $285 in 2025, a 10.5% increase.
“We see robust and broadening earnings growth continue in the low double digits.”
In terms of valuation, the S&P 500 is currently at the higher end of what is considered fair value. However, Deutsche Bank believes that valuations will be supported by a strong equity demand-supply balance.
The bank maintains a neutral stance on MCG & Technology stocks but is overweight on Financials, Consumer Cyclicals, and Materials. It remains neutral on Industrials and Energy sectors, while Utilities have been moved back to a neutral position.
