As the U.S. prepares for the highly anticipated 2024 elections, BCA Research advises investors to take precautionary measures and de-risk their portfolios.
The financial landscape is clouded by economic slowdown, geopolitical tensions, and the likelihood of market volatility in the lead-up to November.
While BCA assigns a slight advantage to the Democrats, the margin is slim, and the possibility of market disruptions remains high. Investors should act with caution, positioning themselves defensively to mitigate potential risks.
A major concern outlined by BCA Research is the looming threat of a recession.
“Unemployment is rising and has triggered the “Sahm Rule,” suggesting that recession is coming,” the analysts said.
While unemployment rates remain manageable in key states, an unexpected spike could create a ripple effect, triggering a market selloff.
The U.S. stock market, which typically peaks six months before a recession, could see a sharp correction as early as September or October.
This mirrors the pattern seen during previous downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis, when an economic shock coincided with a major equity market collapse.
“For now, favor US assets over global, US bonds over stocks, defensive equity sectors over cyclicals, health care over other defensives, and aerospace/defense over other cyclicals,” the analysts said.
The reasoning is straightforward. During periods of economic contraction, industries that offer essential services or are supported by government spending generally perform more robustly.
Additionally, with growing recessionary pressures, U.S. bonds are likely to outperform equities, positioning fixed-income assets as a more secure option for preserving capital.
Beyond economic concerns, geopolitical instability adds another layer of uncertainty. BCA’s report highlights how rising tensions with both Russia and China could impact global markets.
Russia, in particular, poses a unique risk due to its potential for economic retaliation, such as restricting oil or uranium exports. These moves could send shockwaves through global energy markets, driving up prices and adding further strain to an already fragile global economy.
China, grappling with its own economic slowdown, presents structural risks that could reverberate across the global financial system. Investors should take note of these geopolitical flashpoints, as any escalation in these areas could further destabilize markets.
Adding to these concerns is the prospect of so-called “October surprises.” BCA identifies several potential disruptions that could emerge just before the election.
Among these are sharp increases in unemployment, bursts of social unrest, or even a significant geopolitical event like a border crisis or terrorist attack.
Each of these scenarios has the potential to shift voter sentiment and influence the market, making it imperative for investors to anticipate and react to these possibilities.
BCA stresses that any of these events, particularly if they catch the market off guard, could drive equity volatility to new highs.
The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election itself also contributes to market volatility.
As per BCA’s projections, Democrats hold a 55% probability of securing the White House, but the race is far from settled.
A Republican sweep would likely lead to a very different set of outcomes, including major tax cuts, major tariff hikes, major immigration curbs, and higher odds of a regional war in the Middle East
On the flip side, a Democratic win would bring gridlock, minor tax increases, marginal fiscal improvement, nuclear brinksmanship with Russia, and coalition-building against China. Europe, Canada, Mexico, and Japan would see political risk premiums fall not in absolute terms but relative to a Trump victory.
Amidst this political uncertainty, BCA urges investors to prepare for heightened market fluctuations regardless of the election outcome.
With neither party having a clear advantage, the risk of unexpected disruptions—whether economic, political, or geopolitical—remains a serious concern. Therefore, de-risking is a smart strategy.
