The American “Washington Institute” stated that any major Israeli attack on oil and energy facilities in Iran will have serious repercussions, including the possibility of damaging global energy supplies, specifically from the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and others, and Iraq, China and Turkey will also be affected. Therefore, the administration of US President Joe Biden must continue to pressure Israel to focus its potential attacks on Iran on military or security sites and facilities.
The US report indicated that when the Israeli Air Force bombed Houthi oil facilities in Yemen on September 29 for the second time since July, observers confirmed that the distance of more than 1,600 km was a warning to Iran, whose main oil fields are much closer, adding that there is additional evidence that Israel may consider carrying out strikes against the Iranian oil and gas industry after it pledged a major response to the massive Iranian ballistic missile attack on October 1 against it.
However, the American report, which was translated by Shafaq News Agency, considered that the consequences of such an Israeli attack on Iranian energy facilities on the Israeli, Gulf and global energy markets could be significant, noting at the same time that Iran has extensive experience in maintaining production and export capabilities, as happened with it in the eighties during the economically devastating Iran-Iraq war.
The report found that for Israel, it is clear that this Iranian sector carries a rich set of targets, but given the effects that such a strike could have on Israel’s own infrastructure, in addition to its potential impact on regional and global energy markets, it may be better to consider other targets.
The report said that Iran’s main vulnerabilities are pumping stations, pipeline junctions, and export facilities, pointing as an example to the junction points in the north of Kharg Island, which is considered the coastal meeting point for all pipelines in southwestern Iran, where Iran’s main oil fields are located.
The report pointed out that Iran’s crude oil production currently stands at about 3.95 million barrels per day, while about 2 to 2.4 million barrels per day are used as raw materials for refining for domestic consumption, while the rest is exported, adding that Iran’s oil exports reached 1.82 million barrels per day in March, most of which went to China.
Meanwhile, the report said that Iran is also the third largest producer of natural gas in the world with about 684 million cubic meters per day, but it also imports gas because a large part of its production is consumed domestically for electricity generation and heating. During the cold season, domestic gas consumption in Iran can reach 700 million cubic meters per day, leading to a severe shortage.
For this reason, the report stated that Iran signed on October 1 a long-term “strategic agreement” with the Russian company “Gazprom”, under which it will receive 300 million cubic meters of gas per day via a pipeline that Moscow plans to build under the Caspian Sea.
The report reviewed Iran’s refineries, noting that their number is no less than 28 oil, condensate and gas refineries distributed throughout the country. However, the largest of them is the “Persian Gulf Star” gas condensate refinery located in the west of Bandar Abbas, near the Strait of Hormuz, which was established and partially managed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Its production capacity is 480 thousand barrels per day of condensates, which represents about 19% of the total daily raw materials for refineries in Iran.
In addition, the report said that Iran operates about 60 petrochemical plants, some of which can sometimes be used to produce gasoline in times of emergency, noting that Iran is one of the largest gasoline consumers in the world, and that its cars are among the least fuel-efficient.
The report added that Iran is not known to be a major exporter of refined petroleum products, but there are some exceptions, as it exports to allied countries such as Syria and Venezuela.
As for export and storage terminals, the report said that Kharg Island in the northern Gulf is Iran’s main crude oil export terminal, with a current loading capacity of about 5 million barrels per day. Iran also has huge above-ground tanks that store 50 to 60 percent of its oil and product stocks, and are vulnerable to missile, drone and air attacks.
Iran also has a limited number of underground storage facilities at Maroun and Ghoreh, which are generally considered safer from potential hostilities. In addition, Iran has 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas in two fortified underground storage sites at Sarajeh near Qom and Shourijeh near Shiraz, to secure supplies for the cold season.
Although the report pointed out that the Iranian oil sector has been facing sanctions for years, suffers from a lack of foreign investment, and faces difficulty in obtaining spare parts and modern technologies, it said that a successful attack on pumping stations or pipeline intersections could severely disrupt the transport and export of oil, especially from Kharg and the new Jask terminal located outside the Strait of Hormuz.
But he noted that such large-scale attacks on such facilities could disrupt Iranian oil flows for weeks or even months, adding at the same time that achieving such an outcome would require a major military effort using powerful, high-precision weapons and drones, or through sabotage operations, including through cyber attacks that could disrupt control systems at refineries, pipelines and export terminals, similar to what happened, for example, in 2023, when it is believed that the fuel distribution network was targeted by Israeli cyber attacks that disrupted gasoline supplies nationwide for weeks, affecting thousands of gas stations and creating long lines.
However, the report said that the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have already led to a rise in oil prices, which were at a low of $70 per barrel but reached more than $80 on October 7, adding that although Saudi Arabia needs a relatively high price, perhaps $100 per barrel, for Crown Prince Mohammed’s ambitious development projects represented by “Vision 2030,” such projects also require regional peace and stability, which explains the noticeable Saudi reluctance to be drawn into a wider war in the Middle East.
The report added that in theory, Riyadh could compensate for any shortfall in global oil supplies due to an Israeli attack on Iranian infrastructure, but the fact that the kingdom’s main oil fields and facilities are located directly across the Gulf from Iran makes them also vulnerable to attack, similar to what happened in September 2019 on the Saudi Abqaiq complex.
In addition, the report said, “Any Israeli strikes against Iran’s oil, gas and petrochemical industries would likely lead to Iranian and ‘proxies’ attempts to attack key Israeli energy targets, including refineries in Haifa and Ashdod, the largest power and desalination plants, and the three offshore gas fields.”
The report added that the escalation could lead to threats against oil facilities in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, disrupt commercial shipping through the region, or threaten Western maritime assets, noting that Iran had previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if it was no longer able to export its oil.
However, the report said that any such disruption in response to the Israeli attack could lead to further Western intervention, a possibility that Tehran may want to avoid.
The report pointed out that Turkey and Iraq import natural gas from Iran, and these imports are considered vital for generating electricity and heating, and therefore any interruption in Iranian gas production will affect these two countries.
The report concluded by recalling US President Joe Biden’s statements on October 4, in which he called for refraining from launching attacks on Iranian oil facilities, adding that the US administration must continue to dissuade Israel from striking such Iranian targets.
In contrast, the report considered that Israel could achieve better effects by focusing any attack on a single military, security or intelligence institution affiliated with the regime, especially the Revolutionary Guards or the Basij headquarters, or facilities that directly support the Iranian missile program, or a regional facility linked to the work of “agents.”
The report concluded that attacking a regime target would pose a lower risk of escalation into a full-scale war, and may not carry the same level of risk to regional and global energy supplies.
shafaq.com
