The USD/JPY pair has seen volatile trading of late, and Citigroup discusses its likely movements with both Japan and the US hosting elections in the near future.
At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), USD/JPY traded 0.1% lower at ¥148.09, having traded at a two-month high of ¥149.12 at the start of the week.
In Japan, last week Shigeru Ishiba, who recently took office as the 102nd Prime Minister, called a snap election on October 27.
The Lower House has 465 seats, with the LDP currently holding 258 and its coalition partner Komeito holding 32. The ultimate gauge of success for PM Ishiba will be whether he can maintain a majority of 233 seats for the LDP-Komeito alliance.
“The LDP approval rating has dropped due to various political scandals over the past few years, so it is almost certain to lose seats in this month’s election. However, we cannot envisage the ruling coalition losing the 57 seats that would mean it no longer holds a majority,” said analysts at Citi, in a note dated Oct. 8.
Thus, “we do not think the Japanese general election will be an important driver of the USD/JPY,” Citi added. “The US Presidential election the following week will likely have a bigger impact.”
Under either a Harris administration or a Trump administration we believe the type of JPY-buying interventions that the Japanese government has conducted over the past several years would probably be accepted to some extent.
However, it could be more difficult to intervene to sell the JPY (buy the USD), and this could become practically impossible under a Trump administration, given that former President Trump will likely try to reverse the strengthening trend in the USD.
“We are bearish on this currency pair in the long term, but our base-case scenario for the medium term is a recovery to around ¥150 by year-end,” Citi, and the rebound in the USD/JPY following US employment data last Friday has been within expectations.
“However, we believe the 350-day moving average (around ¥149$ currently) is now turning into a resistance line. We see near-term upside to the 100-day or 200-day lines (around ¥151.5 currently),” Citi added.
